Kevin Lowe referred to this year’s draft as “not a deep draft year … it’s not as good as last year”. All team scouts and GM have said this is not a quality draft and this year’s draft could be worse then 1996. In 5 years, we will know if that is true.
The important questions facing the Edmonton Oilers is to draft for skill or draft a player who will make the NHL. It is a gamble not only facing the Oilers but the 29 other NHL teams. The Oilers have to look at the draft in terms of the future because being a small market, when a player reaches their peak in salary, it means good-bye. However, with the 2004 lockout looming, the rules could change for small market clubs.
There are some skilled players in the 2002 draft. Some of the skilled players who could be available at 14 include: Peter Taticek (f), Jakub Koreis (f), Jiri Hudler (f), Pierre-Marc Bouchard (f), Alexander Semin (w), Martin Vagner (d), Kiril Koltsov (d), Sergei Anshakov (w). Lowe said the Oilers have enough gritty and role players and need to improve the skill in the organization.
Some “safe and reliable” players in this years draft the Oilers could draft are: Eric Nystrom (w), Dan Paille (w), Ben Eager (w), John Boychcuk (d), Rob Globke (w).
In a draft of hit and misses, more teams would be more inclined to take the safe and reliable player. Mike Smith, GM of the Chicago Blackhawks said you “draft for skill and trade for character and grit”. Many people have issues with Mr. Smith but no doubt, he has done a fantastic job at the entry draft.
The Oilers will be looking for skilled players at any position. Their draft philosophy is to “draft the best player available”, but all NHL teams say that. After the first round, the Oilers will be targeting specific needs. If the Oilers had their choice, the skilled player they take will score them 40 goals a year. A skilled winger who can score is at the top of their list. This year’s draft may not produce any 40-goal scorers.
Skilled winger Ales Hemsky, power winger Jani Rita, towering defenseman Alexei Semenov and two way defensive centre Jason Chimera in the system, the Oilers would like another skilled winger or defenseman who can rush the puck like Tom Poti did. Look the Oilers to draft a skilled player at 14.
With more teams drafting older Europeans, look for the Oilers to continue with this trend. The Oilers were very happy with the work Jussi Markennen did for them last season. He was a 25-year-old draft in the fifth round last year and made the big club. He helped the Oilers down the stretch and the Oilers finally have a reliable back up goalie since Essensa. Ninth round draft pick Ales Pisa played well in Hamilton but struggled in Edmonton. Columbus and Minnesota have been successful in drafting older Europeans. The Oilers did well with Markennen and look for the Oilers to draft one or two in the late rounds with the extra picks they receive from Minnesota in the Zholtok deal and the NHL will award the Oilers for losing defenseman Igor Ulanov.
Odds:
1. Odds the Oilers move up in the Entry Draft: Less then 10% because of the asking price teams will want for a top 5 pick. Rumours are the Thrasher and Lightning asking for 1 front line player and a high draft pick. This is way too steep a price in a draft that may not produce any potential franchise or impact players.
2. Odds the Oilers trade Down: 40%: Lowe is looking to get a player who can play right away and dangling his pick. He is willing to trade down to get a 5th or 6th defenseman.
3. Odds the Oilers trade out of first round: Less then 10%. The Oilers have never traded out of the first round in their 22-year history. Look for them to stay at 14 and make a European there first rounder again.
4. Jiri Dopita becomes an Oiler: 80% of this happening since Lowe has talked to Jiri’s agent quite a few times and also talked to Flyers GM Bob Clarke.
5. Odds the Oilers make a trade: 85% since Lowe has five core free agents to sign (Anson Carter, Mike York, Jason Smith, Eric Brewer & Todd Marchant) and needs to clear some room (salary) to sign all five. All five are very important to the club. Players like Ethan Moreau, Mike Grier, Dan Cleary, Marty Reasoner could be dealt on draft day.
Next week: Oilers Draft Review and sounds and insights at the Entry Draft (Oilers perspective).
