Hockey's Future - The #1 Online Prospects Resource

Blues Top 10 Prospects

1. Peter Sejna, LW

2. Konstantin Zakharov, LW

3. Jay McClement, C

4. Shawn Belle, D

5. Alexei Shkotov, C-RW

6. Trevor Byrne, D

7. Konstantin Barulin, G

8. David Backes, C-RW

9. John Pohl, C

10. Colin Hemingway, RW

Team Needs

The Blues most immediate needs are for a young, capable goaltender, more scoring help on the wings, and possibly another defenseman in the four-to-six range. None of these needs will be addressed immediately by players selected in the draft since the Blues don’t draft until No. 17, but one or more of these areas could be addressed in a draft day deal which would see the Blues trade down for a later first round pick and a player.

The Blues would like to reduce payroll significantly, but aren't likely to allow Pavol Demitra to depart as an unrestricted free agent by failing to qualify him, nor are they likely to move Keith Tkachuk thanks to a no-trade clause in his contract (and his chemistry with Demitra). Qualifying Demitra and then trading him, or convincing Doug Weight to waive his no-trade clause, are the most likely off-season trade scenarios for the Blues.

A concern for the Blues is that, beyond Demitra and Tkachuk, the depth chart at forward features only four players (Weight, Eric Boguniecki, and free agents Mike Sillinger and Dallas Drake) who have scored 20 goals in an NHL season. Most of the rest of the forwards are grinders like Ryan Johnson and Mark Rycroft, who are good skaters with energy, but not accomplished scorers at the NHL level.

Also a concern for the Blues in this draft is that even though they'll be choosing at No. 17, which is higher than they have in almost a decade, there isn't a sure-fire blue-chip scoring prospect projected to be available at that point of the draft. The scoring forwards that do project to be available come with question marks that may lead the Blues to make a "safer" pick.

Organizational Strengths

The Blues have a solid top five on the defense depth chart, and there's more defensive talent in the pipeline. American League defensive prospects Mike Stuart and Trevor Byrne are close to NHL-ready right now. Brett Scheffelmaier and Aaron MacKenzie are at least a year away, however, and junior prospects Shawn Belle, Zack FitzGerald, Robin Jonsson, and tiny-but-skilled Andrei Pervyshin are two to four years away.

The Blues are also developing a decent stable of goaltending prospects. Reinhard Divis is the greybeard of the group at 28, too old for prospect status, but he's played well in two years with Worcester, and became the Blues full-time backup after Brent Johnson was sent packing at the trade deadline. Curtis Sanford is also at the cutoff age for prospect status, but he had statistically his best season ever with AHL affiliate Worcester this year, and is expected to push hard for a job in St. Louis next year.

The Blues also have junior prospects Chris Beckford-Tseu at Kingston (OHL), and Euros Tuomas Nissinen and Konstantin Barulin. Nissinen backstopped Finland to a bronze medal at the 2002 WJC (ahead of Atlanta's über-prospect Kari Lehtonen), and may be in Worcester next year after two seasons in Finland's top league. Barulin wowed Canadian audiences in the RE/MAX Canada Russia Challenge last winter, facing an average of over 40 shots per game, and keeping an overmatched Russian team in games against all-star teams from the three major junior leagues.

The Blues also have good organizational depth at center, with John Pohl and Jay McClement in Worcester, along with Blake Evans (who can also play left wing) and checker Greg Black. In addition, the Blues have collegian David Backes (who can also play right wing) and juniors Tomas Troliga, Alexandre Bolduc, Jonathan Lehun and Russian Dimitri Semin on deck.

Organizational Weaknesses

The Blues have been pigeonholed as a bottom-tier developmental organization in every ranking for the last decade. Despite having developed a Calder winner in the last two seasons, and despite having as many prospects with legitimate NHL futures as any other organization, the Blues remain the Rodney Dangerfield of the NHL largely for one reason: the lack of a recognized blue-chip scoring forward prospect in the organization. Even excellent rookie seasons by Konstantin Zakharov (49 points in 55 games with Moncton) and Alexei Shkotov (67 points in 43 games with Moncton and Quebec) in the QMJHL have done little to convince observers that the Blues have that "sexy" offensive dynamo in the system at this time.

Top prospect Peter Sejna was expected to be that offensive diamond-in-the-rough for the Blues this year, but a rugged start to his first full pro season saw him exiled to Worcester, where he was able to right the ship and play well down the stretch.

There are talented forwards at Worcester, Sejna being the most notable, but none are ready to step in and make an impact in the NHL right now. Sejna, Pohl, and possibly McClement may, however, be ready for NHL spot duty as early as next season.

Right wing Colin Hemingway took a bit of a backward step as a rookie, and spent most of the year in Peoria of the ECHL, where he played well (20 goals, 44 points, +29 in 36 games). There are also some other fairly high-end wingers in the pipeline (Zakharov, Shkotov, Backes and Finnish junior league whiz Juha-Matti Aaltonen), but all are two to four years away at minimum from contributing in the NHL.

Draft Tendencies

The 2004 draft marks the second draft with the Blues for Director of Amateur Scouting Jarmo Kekalainen. Last year, in his first draft with the Blues, Kekalainen had 12 picks to work with. In his previous positions with Ottawa, Kekalainen had input in drafts from 1996 through 2002, but no clear tendencies emerge from those drafts. At the seven drafts in which Kekalainen participated for the Senators, they used their first round pick twice to select a defenseman, four times to select a forward, and once for a goalie.

The general draft philosophy of the Blues under Larry Pleau's regime as GM has been to select the best player available per their depth chart, and the Blues depth chart doesn't always conform to conventional wisdom. The selection of Shkotov 48th overall in 2002 is an example; the experts had Shkotov ranked much lower, mainly because of his size.

Pleau allowed Kekalainen to exert a great influence on last year's draft, and Kekalainen showed that he's not afraid to follow the Blues trend and take a chance on a skilled player when others have questions about him. Shawn Belle was pegged by scouts as having questionable hockey sense, but was called by Kekalainen "the best athlete I've ever seen." Also, because of questions about his ability to play consistently at a high level, Zakharov (whom some had pegged as a possible late first-round selection) fell to the third round, where Kekalainen and the Blues snagged him with the 101st pick.

Player most likely to be taken in the first round (Hockey’s Future staff mock draft result): Alexander Radulov, RW